Did COVID-19 have a sustained measurable effect on CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere?
No
The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere rose to about 418 parts per million in May 2020. This is the highest concentration ever recorded, despite a 5.8% reduction in the rate of emissions from 2019 to 2020. The key point is that the concentration of CO2 can still increase even as the rate of emissions falls. Emissions between January and April 2020 were about 8.6% lower than during the same period in 2019, yet the May 2020 concentration levels were the highest on record.
Emissions are strongly linked to economic activity; during the Great Recession, global GDP declined by 1.5% while global emissions declined by 1.3%. The declines in emissions observed early in the pandemic were reversed as economies began to grow again. In 2021, CO2 emissions are estimated to have increased by 4.8%.
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