Is it realistic to replace the income tax with tariffs?
No
The federal government collected about $2.2 trillion in individual income taxes in Fiscal Year 2023 — half of all government revenue. U.S. imports totalled about $3.8 trillion in 2023. Therefore, a tariff rate of 58% would have been required to offset income tax revenue that year — but only if imports remained at this level.
A more realistic scenario recognizes that high tariffs would cause companies and consumers to reduce their purchases of imported goods (as these tariffs would make goods more expensive).
History confirms this: when tariffs have increased in the past, import volumes have dropped as companies and consumers reduced their purchases of imported goods. Fewer import purchases means less tariff revenue.
An analysis by the nonpartisan Peterson Institute for International Economics found that 50% tariffs would maximise revenue. Even so, this would only raise about $780 billion in tariff revenues — far less than the amount raised by the income tax.
This fact brief is responsive to conversations such as this one.
Sources:
EconoFact Tariffs: Jobs, Prices, and Retaliation
Congressional Budget Office The Federal Budget in Fiscal Year 2023
Bureau of Economic Analysis U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, December and Annual 2023
National Bureau of Economic Research The Smoot-Hawley Tariff: a quantitative assessment
Tax Foundation Lessons from the 2002 Bush Steel Tariffs
National Bureau of Economic Research The Economic Impacts of the US-China Trade War
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