Fact Check: Has the US stock market lagged behind international stock markets since the start of Trump’s second term?
Yes
The S&P 500 rose 16% in 2025, compared to 32% for the MSCI ACWI ex-USA, which follows international stocks. According to Seymour Asset Management, US stocks outperformed the rest of the world for a decade ending in November 2024. Since then, the return on international equities has been roughly 15 percentage points higher. In January 2026, global equities performed 8 percentage points higher than the S&P 500, the widest gap in three decades.
According to Polar Capital, one reason for this widening gap is a weak dollar. The US dollar index fell 9-10% in 2025, and investors who anticipate further weakening might hesitate to put money in the US. For example, European investors who buy US equities might worry about getting fewer Euros for each dollar when they return their funds to Europe. Other factors include trade relationships bypassing the US and increased European defense expenditure.
This fact brief is responsive to conversations such as this one.
Sources:
Macrotrends S&P 500 Historical Annual Returns (1927-2026)
MSCI MSCI ACWI ex USA Index (USD)
Morningstar U.S. stocks are falling behind. It could be the beginning of an epic shift toward global markets.
Yahoo Finance US Dollar Index
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