Fact Check: Have long-term debt obligations been estimated to total close to $100 trillion?
Yes
The US’s federal debt held by the public, the amount owned to bondholders, was $31 trillion in Q4 2025, but this does not account for implicit obligations for future welfare payment responsibilities.
For example, additional revenue will be needed to preserve the benefits of the Social Security Administration’s trust fund. It is expected to run out in the 2030s, dampening benefits, unless changes are made to its revenues or payments.
The Penn Budget Model takes current debt and incorporates estimated future commitments over the next 100 years to arrive at a figure of net present value (NPV) of roughly $100 trillion in long-term obligations. That is around 5% of the PV of GDP over 100 years. Extending it indefinitely pushes these PV figures to $162 trillion and 6.6% of GDP.
PV is the value today that is equivalent to a discounted future sum, taking into account interest gained on investing.
This fact brief is responsive to conversations such as this one.
Sources:
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Federal Debt Held by the Public
Yahoo Finance The national debt isn’t $39 trillion. One economist says it’s actually $100 trillion
Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget It’s Time for Trust Fund Solutions
Penn Wharton Budget Model Complete Measures of U.S. National Debt
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