Fact Check: Does immigration, on net, increase the national debt?
No
Many analyses have found immigration as a whole has a positive fiscal impact.
The libertarian Cato Institute analyzed the fiscal impact of all immigrants (both legal and undocumented) between 1994 and 2023 and found immigrants paid more in taxes than they received in benefits every year during that period. Overall, immigrants had a positive fiscal impact of $14.5 trillion between 1994 and 2023.
Similarly, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimated increased immigration from 2021-2026 would lower deficits by $900 billion between 2024-2034.
Not all groups of immigrants have positive fiscal impacts: the conservative Manhattan Institute notes immigrants without college degrees receive more in benefits than they pay in taxes. However, they also find the average immigrant reduces the fiscal deficit.
Further, the National Academy of Sciences finds that the children of immigrants have a more positive net fiscal impact than either native born Americans or first generation immigrants.
This fact brief is responsive to conversations such as this one.
Sources:
Cato Institute | Case Study: Immigrants Reduced Deficits by $14.5 Trillion Since 1994
Congressional Budget Office | Effects of the Immigration Surge on the Federal Budget and the Economy
The Manhattan Institute | The Fiscal Impact of Immigration (2025 Update)
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