Fact Check: Has any country with persistently low fertility rates been able to return them to the replacement level?
Yes
Kazakhstan raised its fertility rate from 1.9 in 2001 to 3.0 in 2023, above the 2.1 replacement rate necessary to maintain a stable population. However, academic studies have described the below-replacement fertility pre-2000 as a result of the collapse of the Soviet Union, rather than a trend towards lower fertility.
Meanwhile, no OECD country with low fertility rates has been able to raise them back to 2.1, though Israel has always had a higher rate. The average fertility rate for the OECD is 1.43, and it was 3.3 in 1960. Czechia’s fertility rate, having increased to 1.8 in 2021 from 1.1 in 2000, fell to 1.4 in 2023.
Several governments implement pro-natal policies, such as a payment of up to $30,000 per child by a South Korean province.
High costs of living and a decreasing preeminence of marriage as an institution have been used as partial explanations for the fertility crises.
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Sources:
World Bank Fertility rate, total (births per woman) – Kazakhstan
National Library of Medicine Sustained and Universal Fertility Recuperation in Kazakhstan
OECD Fertility rates
The Korea Herald South Korea’s fastest-shrinking province to give parents $30,000 per child over 18 years
OECD Society at a Glance 2024: OECD Social Indicators
World Bank Fertility rate, total (births per woman) – Israel
World Bank Fertility rate, total (births per woman) – Czechia
Axios The cultural factors behind falling fertility rates
EconoFact The Mystery of the Declining U.S. Birth Rate
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