Fact Check: Have AI-related companies driven stock gains since the launch of ChatGPT?
Yes
Though it is difficult to quantify the exact degree to which AI-related stocks have contributed to stock gains, analyses have found it is a key driver. A September 2025 J.P. Morgan report noted that since the launch of ChatGPT (November 2022), AI-related stocks had been responsible for 75% of S&P 500 returns and 80% of earnings growth. Furthermore, according to RBC Wealth Management, seven AI-oriented stocks represented over half of the S&P 500’s total gains during 2025.
Beyond stock gains, the St. Louis Federal Reserve estimated AI capital expenditures accounted for 39% of total GDP growth in 2025. However, Goldman Sachs’ chief economist argues that since much of AI investment was spent on imported inputs, they had a negligible impact on economic growth in 2025. An MRB analysis found accounting for imports, AI-related investments only contributed between 20% and 25% of 2025 real GDP growth.
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Sources:
J.P. Morgan | Eye on the Market: The Blob: Capital, China, Chips, Chicago and Chilliwack
RBC Wealth Management | US Equity Returns in 2025: Record-breaking Resilience
St. Louis Federal Reserve | Tracking AI’s Contribution to GDP Growth
Yahoo Finance | Top Goldman Sachs economist says AI barely had any effect on the US economy
The Tech Buzz | AI Spending Contributed Just 20% to US GDP Growth in 2025
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