The Proposed US Gold Card: Lessons From Investor Visa Programs

The Issue:

In support of the goal of balancing the federal budget, President Trump announced the creation of a new “Gold Card” investor visa during his March 4, 2025 speech to Congress. “For $5 million, we will allow the most successful, job-creating people from all over the world to buy a path to U.S. citizenship,” the President stated. Despite the absence of further details on the new visa program, Commerce Secretary Lutnick was widely reported in March to have said that he had already “sold” 1,000 of these cards. While the $5 million fee is much higher than typical, these programs are not unusual. The United States already has an immigrant investor visa program, and many other countries have implemented similar schemes with the aim of raising government funds or spurring investment. What lessons do these examples offer with regard to the potential for investor visa programs to meet economic, fiscal, and other goals?

Countries have seen investor visas as a source of fiscal revenues and as a way of encouraging investment.

The Facts:

• Programs to allow foreign investors to preferential access to residency status or even citizenship are very common. One study estimates that over 100 countries have established “golden visa,” or residency-by-investment (RBI), schemes. These programs provide noncitizens with visas that allow them to reside and work in their countries in exchange for sizable local investment. And over 20 countries offer “golden passports,” or citizen-by-investment (CBI) schemes, which allow foreign investors to buy citizenship. RBI and CBI schemes are common among smaller and relatively less developed countries, including smaller island states in the Caribbean and the Pacific, which have viewed these programs as a useful source of fiscal revenues and a way of encouraging inward investment. However, many wealthier countries have also introduced such programs, including Australia, Canada, and many European countries.
• Minimum investment requirements for these schemes vary widely. The cost differences can reflect the remoteness or desirability of the country, whether residency versus citizenship is provided in exchange, and the different advantages that the new status can confer (such as visa-free travel). For example, the minimum investment requirement for citizenship from Samoa was only $11 thousand, whereas Cyprus offered a residency visa for an investment of the equivalent of $314 thousand and citizenship for $2.15 million (see here). Programs also vary with regard to the type of investment required, i.e., whether it can be in the form of a purchase of real estate, bonds, or direct investment in a local business. And many countries permit a significant portion of the investment to be borrowed (see here).
• The United States already operates a “golden visa” or residency-by-investment scheme. The EB-5 Visa program was introduced in 1990 and has been reauthorized by Congress roughly every five years (its next reauthorization is due in 2027). The current program allows investors and their immediate families to obtain a conditional “green card”—i.e., conditional U.S. permanent resident status—in exchange for qualifying investments. Investors may then apply for permanent status in two years. Qualifying investments are defined as a “new commercial enterprise that will create full-time positions for at least 10 qualifying employees” in an amount of at least $1.05 million, or $0.8 million if the investment is in a “targeted employment area”.
• Over the past 15 years, demand for EB-5 visas has fluctuated from less than 2,000 to over 10,000 visas per year, depending on the year. According to a recent study by the Government Accountability Office (GAO), applications for EB-5 visas dropped from over 13,000 in 2016 to just over 700 in 2021 — in large part owing to reduced numbers of applicants from China. The GAO ascribed the decline to several factors including stricter limits on the annual number of approvals as well as the possibility that the pool of potential applicants had been exhausted. However, the COVID-19 pandemic was likely also an important factor, and more recent data has shown a strong rebound in visas issued, mainly to applicants from China, Vietnam, and India.
• The international evidence suggests that these schemes bring limited if any economic benefits to the countries that introduce them. An IMF study that examined the experience of a large sample of countries over two decades found that offering CBI and RBI schemes “does not appear to affect domestic investment.” The study finds that these schemes can boost fiscal revenues but only for smaller island states, where fees can represent a large share of the government revenues. This has been especially true in the Caribbean, where in the case of St. Kitts and Nevis (population 47,000), its CBI program netted 37 percent of GDP in 2015, according to the country’s Prime Minister. [To give a sense of scale for the United States — with a GDP of just under $30 trillion in 2024 — over 58 thousand U.S. Gold Cards would need to be sold at $5 million to net 1% of US GDP]. 
• There is evidence that investment visa schemes can contribute to domestic real estate price inflation. In several European Union countries, RBI/CBI schemes were introduced or expanded as a way of bolstering local real estate markets, which had collapsed in the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis. Real estate prices increased by as much as 3% in the year of introduction of these schemes, especially in those countries where real estate was an eligible investment, according to the IMF study. The popularity of the Greek RBI program was estimated by a separate study to contribute roughly a third of real estate investment in that country during 2018. There are also examples of situations in which an investor visa scheme can have a concentrated impact on a subnational market. The Canadian business investor scheme, has been credited with contributing to a boom in real estate in Vancouver, with housing prices rising faster than local incomes. Portugal’s program created an estimated “golden visa premium” of 10 percent on property prices, especially for high-end properties valued at close to the investment minimum. Concern regarding the impact of Spain’s RBI program on housing affordability contributed to its elimination in 2025.
• Investments in RBI and CBI schemes are often marketed for their tax advantages. An RBI/CBI visa does not necessarily imply tax residence, since this usually requires physical presence in a country for at least 183 days and countries vary in the degree to which they attach physical presence requirements to visa programs. However, if residence is established, taxes on personal income can be reduced if the jurisdiction offers investors lower tax rates or more generous exemptions, including on foreign-sourced income (e.g., Malta sets a flat 15 percent tax on income that is “received in Malta from foreign sources,” Portugal sets a low flat rate on domestically earned income and exempts foreign income for 10 years; and Antigua and Barbuda exempts foreign income). And in most cases, investors (and their families) would be exempt from wealth, estate, and inheritance taxes. However, income earned on overseas assets would typically still be subject to tax withholdings where the assets are held. And RBI/CBI investors could be subject to an “expatriation tax” if they decide to change their tax residency. 
• Investor visa schemes have been vulnerable to corruption and other abuses. A recent FATF/OECD report highlights that these risks have materialized in many cases owing to weak oversight over investment vehicles, inadequate vetting of applicants, excessive discretion over approvals, and the overuse of intermediaries in application processes. The same report suggests that these programs can be used for money and identity laundering, to hide assets offshore, and avoid the exchange of information between tax authorities. The United States’ existing EB-5 visa program itself has raised concerns regarding fraud and other abuses. For example, the GAO noted that the program was vulnerable to misrepresentations of the materiality of investments and job creation, the use of illicit funds, and the possibility that applicants could use the program to conduct “activities that may pose a national security risk.” The EB-5 was involved in a large fraud case in Vermont, where about 170 foreign investors paid at least $500,000 each for a total of $85 million in the 2010s purportedly to build a biotechnology plant in an economically depressed area in exchange for a path to U.S. permanent residence.
• Investor visa programs have come under increased scrutiny in many countries. The European Commission in 2022 urged member states to scrap their RBI/CBI schemes, citing corruption and other risks as well as their use to avoid sanctions in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. A number of EU members have  placed stricter limits on their programs, including Spain, which announced in 2024 that its golden visa program would be wound down. However, while Portugal removed the option of investing in real estate for those wishing to access its program, news reports suggest that it has made efforts to streamline the application process, and that other EU countries (e.g., Hungary and Greece) continue their efforts to attract investors. The five members of the Organization of Eastern Caribbean States that operate CBI programs agreed in 2024 to establish common standards. These include setting a minimum investment amount and establishing a joint regulatory commission with responsibility for monitoring compliance with national rules and facilitating information sharing. In addition, the countries committed to strengthening the vetting of applications and to suspending those from Russian and Belarussian nationals.