Monetary Policy

Understanding the Low Inflation and Low Unemployment in Today’s Economy (VIDEO)

By and ·October 21, 2019
Harvard Kennedy School, and The Fletcher School, Tufts University
This conversation was recorded on August 1, 2019.

The U.S. economy is in its longest expansion on record. As unemployment touches historic lows, a striking feature of this expansion is that contrary to what economic theory would predict, inflation too remains strangely low. Megan Greene (Harvard) and Michael Klein,

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Why Is Inflation so Low?

By ·October 8, 2019
Wellesley College

The Issue:

Inflation has averaged just over 1-1/2 percent over the past decade, well below the Federal Reserve’s target of 2 percent. Such low inflation for such an extended stretch is quite unusual given historical economic relationships. With the current unemployment rate near historic lows, the persistent soft

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How Low Can We Go? Prospects for Negative Interest Rates

By ·September 17, 2019
Williams College

The Issue:

There is increasing speculation regarding whether the Federal Reserve might set a negative target for the federal funds rate should the economy enter a recession. If it did, the Fed would not be the first central bank to do so. Although negative policy rates have been rare until recently, the European

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What Tools Does the U.S. Have to Combat the Next Recession? (VIDEO)

By and ·December 12, 2018
Harvard University and George Washington University and The Hamilton Project, Brookings Institution
Excerpt from webinar with Karen Dynan (Harvard University), Jay Shambaugh (George Washington University, and The Hamilton Project at The Brookings Institution), and Eduardo Porter (New York Times), October 23, 2018. A collaboration between EconoFact and The Hamilton Project, Brookings.

The Issue:

U.S. fiscal ...
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What Information Does the Yield Curve Yield? (UPDATED)

By ·December 6, 2018
Fletcher School, Tufts University

The Issue:

Forecasting the twists and turns of the economy is difficult. One set of indicators used to gauge where the economy is headed draws on information from financial markets since the yields paid by financial assets reflect the collective market view of the future state of the economy. An inverted yield ...
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Leaning on The Fed

By ·April 13, 2017
Fletcher School, Tufts University

The Issue:

The Federal Reserve walks a tight balance between maintaining low unemployment and preventing the economy from heating up and unleashing inflation. Its decisions impact groups differently: raising interest rates can be painful for borrowers and businesses seeking to invest and expand; lowering them can ...
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